COP28: Fossil fuel row leaves climate deal hanging in the balance as talks continue overnight

It is getting late in Dubai, the expected deadline of 6pm GST for a new draft has passed and negotiations are officially running over.

So where's the hold-up and what are some of the sticking points negotiators are trying to iron out in the ۲۱ page draft text?

The biggest one and definitely the point that has received the most press coverage is probably language on fossil fuels. Instead of calling for a phase out - unabated or otherwise - the text says to reduce the consumption and production of fossil fuels. Climate-vulnerable nations and high-ambition allies say they won't settle for anything less than a phase-out.

But oil and gas producing nations like Saudi Arabia have pushed back against this tougher wording. Others like the G77+ China group say it also fails to recognise that rich historical emitters should be the first to act. 

There has been disagreement over the use of the words 'could include'. Rather than giving strict requirements to cut emissions and fossil fuel use, it provides a loose set of options that counties can choose from among other actions.

"Climate-vulnerable nations and high-ambition allies say they won't settle for anything less than a phase-out.But oil and gas producing nations like Saudi Arabia have pushed back against this tougher wording"As some have described it, a kind of 'choose your own adventure' for climate action. 

Implementation is another critical issue for developing nations. They want developed countries to honour their legally binding commitments to provide mitigation, adaptation and the means - finance and technology etc. - for this to be implemented. It is why you might see some negotiating blocs objecting to a phase out of fossil fuels or even other measures without these means of implementation in place. 

There are whisperings that the COP28 president will try to strike a deal overnight, bringing the UN climate conference to an end with a more ambitious text. Whether that is possible remains to be seen. 

It isn't an unusual state of affairs though as every COP since ۲۰۰۴ has overrun.